Complex systems can undergo critical transitions, where slowly changing environmental conditions trigger a sudden shift to a new, potentially catastrophic state. Early warning signals for these events are crucial for decision-making in fields such as ecology, biology and climate science. Generic early warning signals motivated by dynamical systems theory have had mixed success on real noisy data. More recent studies found that deep learning classifiers trained on synthetic data could improve performance. However, neither of these methods take advantage of historical, system-specific data. Here, we introduce an approach that trains machine learning classifiers directly on surrogate data of past transitions, namely surrogate data-based machine learning (SDML). The approach provides early warning signals in empirical and experimental data from geology, climatology, sociology, and cardiology with higher sensitivity and specificity than two widely used generic early warning signals -- variance and lag-1 autocorrelation. Since the approach is trained directly on surrogates of historical data, it is not bound by the restricting assumption of a local bifurcation like previous methods. This system-specific approach can contribute to improved early warning signals to help humans better prepare for or avoid undesirable critical transitions.

We show that every $d$-dimensional probability distribution of bounded support can be generated through deep ReLU networks out of a $1$-dimensional uniform input distribution. What is more, this is possible without incurring a cost - in terms of approximation error measured in Wasserstein-distance - relative to generating the $d$-dimensional target distribution from $d$ independent random variables. This is enabled by a vast generalization of the space-filling approach discovered in (Bailey & Telgarsky, 2018). The construction we propose elicits the importance of network depth in driving the Wasserstein distance between the target distribution and its neural network approximation to zero. Finally, we find that, for histogram target distributions, the number of bits needed to encode the corresponding generative network equals the fundamental limit for encoding probability distributions as dictated by quantization theory.

How many neurons are needed to approximate a target probability distribution using a neural network with a given input distribution and approximation error? This paper examines this question for the case when the input distribution is uniform, and the target distribution belongs to the class of histogram distributions. We obtain a new upper bound on the number of required neurons, which is strictly better than previously existing upper bounds. The key ingredient in this improvement is an efficient construction of the neural nets representing piecewise linear functions. We also obtain a lower bound on the minimum number of neurons needed to approximate the histogram distributions.

We present an explicit deep neural network construction that transforms uniformly distributed one-dimensional noise into an arbitrarily close approximation of any two-dimensional Lipschitz-continuous target distribution. The key ingredient of our design is a generalization of the "space-filling" property of sawtooth functions discovered in (Bailey & Telgarsky, 2018). We elicit the importance of depth - in our neural network construction - in driving the Wasserstein distance between the target distribution and the approximation realized by the network to zero. An extension to output distributions of arbitrary dimension is outlined. Finally, we show that the proposed construction does not incur a cost - in terms of error measured in Wasserstein-distance - relative to generating $d$-dimensional target distributions from $d$ independent random variables.